As of July 15, 2024, the unauthorized over-the-counter trading data of Pi Network shows that the quoted price range of 1 Pi coin in Nigeria is 11,000 to 13,500 naira (approximately 7.5 to 9.2 US dollars), but this price has a volatility as high as ±25% due to the lack of official exchange support. Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria shows that the country’s crypto user base increased by 67% to 22 million in 2023, driving the peak daily trading volume of the Pi Coin community to reach 500,000 transactions. However, 95% of these transactions were completed through non-compliant P2P platforms. For instance, a user in Lagos reported selling 10 Pi coins at a price of 12,800 naira through a WhatsApp group, but faced a 15% commission loss and a two-day settlement delay.
The current Pi coin price model relies on the dual influence of mining costs and market sentiment. An ordinary user mines about 0.2 to 0.5 Pi coins per day. Based on the current black market average price of 12,000 naira, the potential daily income is approximately 2,400 to 6,000 naira, but the actual liquidity is less than 30%. Kaspersky, a cybersecurity firm, reported that over 5,000 Pi coin fraud cases occurred in Nigeria in the first quarter of 2024, with a median amount of 35,000 naira per case and an average loss rate of 83% for victims. In the Pi coin dispute case ruled by the Enugu State Court in 2023, the subject matter 120 Pi was ultimately enforced at 13,800 naira per coin, which was 17% lower than the market price at that time.
Legal and market compliance constitute a major bottleneck. The Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has explicitly stated that Pi Coin has not been registered and the probability of illegal trading is 100%. In 2022, the ban on Binance in the country led to a 12% drop in the Naira exchange rate in a single day. If the Pi mainnet is delayed until 2025, it is expected that market confidence will decline by 40%. On the contrary, if compliance is achieved, referring to the case of GCash in the Philippines integrating the Pi chain, the exchange efficiency can be increased by 90%, and the average daily transaction capacity can be expanded to 1 million transactions, but a 12% compliance certification cost will have to be borne. At present, the search frequency of users through how much is 1 pi in naira is as high as 5,000 times per day, reflecting a strong speculative demand.
Macroeconomic pressure has intensified the uncertainty of exchange rates. Nigeria’s inflation rate is expected to reach 28.3% in 2024. The official exchange rate of the naira against the US dollar is fluctuating in the range of 1,430:1, driving residents to seek alternative asset options. World Bank research indicates that crypto holders account for 39% of the country’s population aged 18 to 35, but the actual exchange rate of Pi coins is less than 5%. A social survey conducted in Kano State revealed that 72% of respondents believed that “the value of Pi should be anchored to the price of grain”, with one Pi approximately equal to 5 kilograms of rice (market price 11,000 naira), revealing a bias in people’s perception. It is recommended that users pay attention to the announcements of the Pi Core team to avoid the risk of price manipulation due to immediate trading needs.